Learning and Earning

     With Forex trading, you absolutely learn. You learn all day. You learn so much that after you hang up the keyboard, wipe your head, and say "whew!" you have either just plunged into an unknown abyss or you're floating on top of the clouds. Either way, you're learning. In the trade, they have a saying: "You're either learning, or you're earning, but you never lose."  I see what they mean. You do lose money, real money, but in the process you learn not to do whatever made you lose; you get better each time, or at least you should.

       Today was a WIN day. It was and is a GOLD STAR DAY!! I have little colored foil stars that I literally put on my pocket calendar every single trading day. If I win and lose but still win overall, I put a green star for the profit. If I lose, I put a red star for the losses. If I trade and win them all, no losses, it's a GOLD STAR! Today was a Gold Star day. I made two early trades and won them both!

    Now, here's the rub. I thought I won $675 per trade. I really did. I did the calculations, and that's what I won, but it wasn't. When you're out there trading, you're trading on a platform, buying and selling currencies back and forth, and the people who run those platforms and institutions, and all of that, must also be paid. That's the best way I can explain it, because in some ways I'm completely clueless, but I'm learning that too.

    The "spread," or the difference between the Ask and the Bid on each trade, needs to be considered, and when you win or lose, it must be paid. The brokers charge a small fee by giving you slightly worse buy/sell price(s) the moment you enter. They will get theirs first.  Then there is "slippage".  Because markets move VERY fast, you might get filled a fraction of a pip away from the exact target. In reality, those small costs shaved about $150 off each of my $675 trades, and I ended up making (fake money) $1023.62 today. Not bad for working about 22-25 minutes before my first cup of coffee.

    First thing, I "box off," or put a literal purple box around, what each pair has done on the list from 3:00 a.m. to the moment I am watching, about 7:30 a.m. This is when London is at midday and the NY Market is gearing up to go to work, so there is a big flux. I box out each pair (EURUSD = Euro/US Dollar). I then look at each pair to see the pattern of the last three or four days and decide whether I think it will continue or change, and I won't go into how I do that here, as it's too complicated. I just do it.

    Using the platform's drawing tool, I determine which direction I think price will go in each case and which one gives me the best chance to enter. That takes time to learn too; you need to understand price, spreads, indicators, and more, but it's worth learning. All of these factors really do matter. Then, just as I decide one looks good, I drop from looking at the 15-minute time frame to the 5 and 1 minute time frame to back up what I thought was happening before putting in my trade. I usually trade on the 5-minute time frame. It's faster, and though it's riskier, it fits my personality and my patience.  Waiting 15 minutes for one candlestick to print can drive you crazy.

    So today, I decided to start the day by seeing what it would TRULY look like if I had the money in the account. What would I really trade? How would I set it up? I mocked it up exactly the way I really would, and boom! I won twice.  I put 10 drawing boxes on the board, and I was 80% correct in predicting which direction price would go on each trade. Eight were correct, two were wrong. Yesterday I was at 70%, and the day before I was at 70%. In trading, you only need to be right 45% of the time to profit. I prefer 70%!

    I'll drop the trade to show you what I did. It's on the 5-minute timeline. The drawing tool shows a target in a Bull or upward trend, and the candlestick went through it - it only has to touch it, but it went through it, and I won.  If I could do $500 a day, I'd be thrilled, but if I trade two at a time and win both, that's a great day, like today. If I win one and lose one, I'm even. If I lose both, I suck, but the day is early, and I might (might) try again, or I might not. I'm frugal. This is my business now. I won't be crazy with it.

    

    This was the EURUSD. The colored boxes on the side show the entry price, bid, ask, etc.  Like I said, there is a lot to learn, but it's so worth it. It's crazy and will take you on a wild ride most of the time, but it is worth it. I think I can do this. I can't tell you how many times I screwed up in my practice, so let me encourage each of you: if you are thinking of learning to trade anything (stocks, bonds, futures, options, forex, bitcoin), get a FREE account through a company like Oanda and use Paper Trading on TradingView to practice. Use AI or Chat to discuss your progress, ask questions, and bounce off of. It works most of the time.