OK, fine, I'll explain the trade and why I decided to take a Bearish short SELL rather than a Bullish long Buy position. First, you can make money in the market in an upward trend and in a downward trend. You have three market moves to watch: the upward trend, the downward trend, and trend consolidation. Most of the time, the market isn't moving up or down; it's battling between buyers and sellers out there in the ether, where you can't see them doing their thing. You only see the results after a candlestick prints.
Candlesticks are either green (bullish) or red (bearish); green ones show the market (or price of something) is going up, and red ones indicate it's going down. When the sticks are shorter and they tend to hover around the same spot, that's consolidation. It's a very general overview, of course, but for explaining this trade, it makes sense.
I use two "indicators" when I trade. I also "box" out my trade before I trade each day, and I only trade when the dots connect, the conditions are right, and the indicators confirm whether a trade is worth entering. I'll try to explain, but again, you can't learn the entire game in one session. I can't tell you how many times my big cousin Gene smashed me at Chess before I finally figured it out, but by my 12th birthday, we could play and I could come close to winning. By my 16th birthday, he had an opponent! Things take time.
Look at the chart. There is an obvious DOWNWARD trend in the EUR/GBP (Euro vs. the British Pound). I boxed the trade, meaning at 8:00 a.m. I turned on the computer, opened TradingView and Oanda, made sure I was on the DEMO account (not a live account), and set my time frame to 15 M. I drew a big purple box around everything the market did from 3:00 a.m. until then. I raised the top of the box to the top of the tallest candle, and the bottom to the bottom of the lowest candle. That is the box. That shows me where the market was and has been for 5 hours. This is the time when the New York Market opens, and the London Market is about midday. They've all but stopped, but the NY market is just getting started.
If price moves out of that box on the next 2 or 3 candles while I'm watching the 15-minute time frame, above or below it, I watch the next candle to see where it goes, whether it strengthens or weakens the trade, and I keep watching. Now, however, I switch my gaze to the indicators I use. I use the RSI at the bottom to show me where the market is being pulled; the numbers vary, and it would take a while to explain, but if they're between 30 and 50, I'm ready to strike. They have to be closer to 40 before I pull the trigger on a sell (Bear), and closer to 48-52 before I buy (Bull).
The EMA is the exponential moving average; it tells you what the last 50 candlesticks have done. You can lower it if you like, or raise it, but I keep mine at 50. The line is a ribbon that drapes over, at, and under the price, and where it is matters before you buy or sell. If the line is above price, you can sell. If it is below price, you can buy. If it is stationary at price, you need to wait - it gets tricky, but this is a general rule. Of course, there are exceptions. There are always exceptions when the market changes literally every nanosecond of the day.
I saw the market trending down and staying in that trend. I watched the RSI and saw that it was hovering in the 30-50 range. I also saw the EMA above the candlesticks, and it kept bouncing off them, so I had to wait for buyers and sellers to show who was in control. Then, just before I hit the drawing tool to set up my trade, before I hit the SELL button to secure it, there was one more thing to consider: SPREAD. The ask price and bid price differ; that difference matters. It can make you lose more than you want immediately, putting your trade at risk even if all the other conditions seem favorable. Check the damn spread.
The spread between the ask and bid shouldn't be more than 20-22 pips, and yes, we'll have to go over pips soon too. You're not actually trading right now, so trust me when I say you'll need to make sure the ASK and BID bars on the right side of the screen are only about 20-22 digits apart. When they are closer than 22, HIT THE TRADE BUTTON! I hit the sell button and made sure my risk was in the right place. Again, it's another lesson on what risk-to-reward is and how much of your account you should risk. I only risk 1% of my account on each trade. I'm not trying to become a millionaire, and I'm not loose or crazy; I'm being practical and frugal. I treat this as if it really is my actual job.
When the risk of the trade is 1% of your account, and my account is $92,000 (fake money) I am literally putting $920 on the line hoping that my calculations are correct, and that the market is going to do what I want it to do. I set the drawing tool at 1:1.4, meaning that if I do win, I win more than I lose. I will win $1288 if price shoots outside my target range, and I will only lose $920 if it shoots out the other side. HOWEVER...I watch my trades, and the moment I see it going south, losing me too much before it pops back into the green, I am likely to stop the trade and call it quits. If the lower time frames show the market is reversing, I will stop the trade.
That being said, I won't stop it immediately. I give it a few candlesticks on the lower time frames to see whether momentum is truly moving away or will spring back in my favor. You trade at a higher time frame, then use the lower ones to gauge the market and its tendency to flex. It can go either way. There is no set pattern. There is no forgiveness. The market is a live, flowing river of pushing and pulling, and there will be no single second of security, only trend. If it is trending and seemingly holding that trend, you have a good shot at making the trade work in your favor.
That's what happened with this trade. I saw it. I took screenshots with my snippit tool and showed ChatGPT what I wanted and my goals. ChatGPT came back and warned me about getting in too soon, explained why, said what the RSI and EMA were likely to do, and literally saved me from entering too soon about 11 times. Finally, when the numbers matched what could be a good chance, I entered. I watched, I waited, and I won -- but if I had left it alone and gone to lunch or something, I would have lost! When the lower time frames started to say it was reversing, I got out.
As it turned out, the market did reverse, then it came back to trail down a bit more, but since I was up $675.00 out of the $1,288 I could have won, I closed it. I closed it and walked away. My goal each day is $400, so after losing $117 earlier in the day and winning a $3.00 trade because I didn't use the right risk-to-reward, I decided ending at $675.00 was the best move. I am happy, and I get to put a big gold star on my calendar. It was a good green day in the world of Trading with Jude!
Photo Credit: TradingView






